The Fat Ole’ Lady is singing loud and clear!
Temperatures well into the 60s Wednesday afternoon sent snowmelt into hyper-drive.
Update 3/10/16: NYS DEC has closed all snowmobile trails and seasonal access roads on Forest Preserve, State Forest and Conservation Easement Lands in the Adirondacks. Towns of Webb & Inlet have closed their snowmobile trail system.
Winter is dead, but its spirit lives on at Old Forge SnoFest, running Friday, March 11th and Saturday, March 12th.
The manufacturers probably won’t be able to offer demo rides on their premier 2017 models, but SnoFest goes on…with or without snow!
Call the Old Forge Visitor Information Center at 315-369-6983 for more information.
Wrapping it up…
This winter was a dud from start to finish, easily the worst snowmobiling season I can recall. We can only hope for better next winter.
Barring a late-March surprise, this will be my final commentary for this season. It’s been an honor and privilege to serve the ilsnow nation for another winter.
Before you leave me for the off-season, drop me a line to say what you liked about ilsnow.com or what you’d like me to change. My goal is always to provide useful information that you’d be hard pressed to find anywhere else.
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We got an inch of snow/sleet Tuesday night. Then temperatures shot up to the middle-30s with a quarter-inch of rain. Shortly after sunrise, the temperature took a nose dive into the teens. Some decent snow showers blew through, but didn’t leave anything of significance.
Lakes are glare ice and any left-over trail base is hard as a brick.
First off: DEC has closed the gates to Moose River Plains through the end of mud season.
Perkins Clearing still does hold a base and some people did make their way back there on Wednesday:
Yes, it looks nice and white when you get back in there, but it’s as hard as a brick with a scant skiff of windblown powder. Studs and ice-scratchers would be a major asset because the winter cold heading into the weekend will keep all the moisture locked up in the trail base and away from your heat-exchangers and slides.
Could you ride in Perkins Clearing from Mason Lake parking lot if you absolutely need a last ride? Yes, but you have to decide if it’s worth the haul.
Temperatures rising into the 50s and even 60s next week will melt the remnant snow pack very quickly and make it difficult to reach the nooks and crannies that would still hold ride-able snow. Read More…
3/2 AM Update: We got an inch of snow/sleet Tuesday night that’s getting wiped out with rain and temperatures in the middle-30s. Temperatures will drop off rapidly today with a freeze up. Probably not worth riding for most…
Temperatures hitting the upper 40s on Sunday, plus a bit of rain Monday morning have put us another step closer to oblivion.
Sure, the trails still have a firm icy base “in the woods.” But the exposed areas are cooked to the point that conditions resemble the end of March or early April around here.
NOTE: The Town of Indian Lake advised me that DEC has closed the gates to Moose River Plains at Cedar River Headquarters until further notice, presumably due to poor conditions. If I hear of DEC reopening the gates later this week, I will pass that along.
Colder air returning Monday night and Tuesday will staunch the bleeding. All eyes are on the next system for Tuesday night into Wednesday.
I have little doubt that it will be a significant snow event for somewhere in northern New York. It just depends on what side of the tracks you’re on.
The RGEM is a short term model that I like to use once the systems hit the 1-2 day range. I’m confident we’ll start as snow here for Tuesday night, but the close approach of the storm center is likely to bring a changeover to sleet and freezing rain for ilsnow land early Wednesday:
As the storm passes by, there would be a shift back to snow Wednesday morning. It’s going to be a tight call as to who gets all snow and who gets mix. We can hope the models latch on to a south/eastward trend to keep it all snow for Indian Lake and vicinity. But the modeling has been rather consistent on the close track.
Here is the snowfall forecast from RGEM through 7 am Wednesday:
You can see the tight gradient in total snow accumulation. The axis of heavy snow is expected to fall over the the St. Lawrence Valley, northern Adirondacks and northern Champlain Valley. Obviously, a slight error in the modeling is going to result in greatly more (or less) snowfall for places along the battle line. Read More…