Winter 2015-16 Outlook: Update 10/7/15

Winter 2015-16 Outlook: Update 10/7/15

I tried to get a video up for Tuesday, but the procedure to translate the screenshot capture into a video crashed twice. To spend so much time preparing the video and to have it go up in flames is not good use of my time.

So, I have decided to discontinue the weather videos until I can find a way to streamline the procedure. In many ways, writing is much easier. Just type the article, insert pictures and press “publish.” No muss, no fuss!

Without any further delay, here are 4 factors I’ll be looking at:

  • Siberian snow cover, especially October
  • Warm PDO+ in North Pacific
  • El Niño, possible chinks in the armor
  • Massive western United States drought

Siberian Snow Cover:

If you have followed for the past couple of years, you have heard about the importance of the spread of snow cover from Siberia into Eurasia in October. Here is a schematic of how that works:


Basically, the large snow pack over Siberia reflects more sunlight into the stratosphere and weakens the polar vortex. This in turn allows the jet stream to buckle and drive cold air into the eastern United States, especially with PNA+ ridging over the western United States. Read More…

Ohio Ridge Riders Snow Bash! September 19 & 20

Snow Bash 2015

The Ohio Ridge Riders Snow Bash has it all:

  • Snowmobiling Drag Races
  • Swap Meet
  • Vintage Snowmobile Displays
  • Food Vendors
  • Merchandise Vendors
  • And much more!

Go to for full details on this flagship snowmobiling pre-season event!

Need directions?

Punch the following address into your GPS or favorite internet map page:
100 Nellis Rd, Cold Brook, NY 13324

Be there to watch them rip!

2013 Snow Bash Drag Race Video

Don’t forget the nearby Ohio Tavern & Restaurant for great eats at the end of the day.

I’ll be there Sunday the 20th to get my fix.

What day will you be there and what is your favorite thing about Snow Bash? You can answer in the comments below.

For the ilsnow nation,


My early thoughts for Winter 2015-16

My early thoughts for Winter 2015-16

The building El Niño is big news! I certainly don’t want to downplay it in regards to what might happen this winter.

But there is another big player on the board: the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO+) which has deepened the drought in the western United States and was largely responsible for our brutally cold heart of last winter. Yes, the warm PDO is still massive and probably not going away!

In the video, I search for analogue years with historically strong El Niño and big time warm PDO and explain what that might mean for the upcoming winter:

ilsnow storm center 8/17/15

Let me be clear in that we don’t have the whole picture yet. But I do believe we have at least a couple pieces of the puzzle. As the fall progresses, we’ll need to monitor the advance of snow pack in Siberia. Read More…


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