Winter Outlook: Update 11/5/15

Siberian Snow Cover

Throughout October, the spread of snow cover from Siberia into Eurasia was ahead of climatological schedule.

The books have closed on October 2015 Eurasian snow cover and the numbers are impressive.

This chart snows a very robust Eurasian snow cover at the end of October:


The relative lack of snow cover in Alaska and western Canada doesn’t bother me at all. That is a reflection of the warm PDO+ pattern in the North Pacific that drove our consistent cold last winter.

October 2015 Eurasian snow cover ranked 6th out of the past 48 years. That’s not quite as high as the number 2 ranking achieved last year, but it’s still rather impressive:

siberian anomaly

For those who have just stumbled upon this site, this link will lead you to why a rapid spread of Siberian snow cover in October often bodes well for a cold winter here.

SST Anomalies

You can see the Big 3 players here:

  • Warm PDO+ in North Pacific
  • El Niño
  • Warm western Atlantic


The strong El Niño has many long term forecasters predicting a mild winter for the eastern United States. But the warm PDO+ and rapid expansion of Siberian snow cover are two big things standing in the way of a typical boiler plate “super Niño” winter. Read More…

Siberian Snow Cover: Update 10/19/15

Siberian Snow Cover: Update 10/19/15

That cold blast we had over the weekend was a nice jolt! The mountains got plastered white and some of the lower elevations got a small covering of snow.

Temperatures barely cracked 32*F at the storm center on Sunday afternoon, which was nearly 20*F below normal for October 18th.  Very impressive cold!

What’s Next?

By the time you read today’s post, this winter-like blast will quickly become a thing of the past as the cold retreats to the Canadian Maritimes and a mild zonal flow washes over the eastern United States this week:


The rapid retreat of cold is not a big deal. Cold like this does not last in October.

Siberian Snow Cover:

For October 17th, I have placed last year’s North Hemisphere snow cover anomaly map side-by-side with this year’s map:


Granted, the positive anomaly of Siberian snow cover was a bit more impressive last year. But the spread of Eurasian snow cover this year is still well ahead of the climatological norm.

The relative lack of snow cover in western Canada and Alaska indicates the warm PDO+ that dominated last winter will likely be a major player this winter. Read More…

Weekend flakes! Update 10/13/15

Weekend flakes! Update 10/13/15

Hey, hey! It’s time to get excited about a bit of snow for the weekend. This is not going to be some early season freak storm, but any snow this time of year moves the needle.

I alluded to this “event” last weekend on ilsnow Facebook and it’s had good ensemble support for a while now. I’ll break this down, then give you an update on the Siberian snow cover.

Weekend Snow!

As Friday’s “St. Lawrence Clipper” moves away, the Canadian floodgates will open. By Saturday afternoon, the clipper (L) will be long gone. But look at the small disturbance (X)  moving into western NY:


Temperatures should be in the 40s for much of Upstate New York mid-day Saturday, which means rain showers for most. Snow would be restricted to the highest elevations.

But as that disturbance pivots through the region and temperatures drop, many places will have snow showers through Saturday night. Temperatures will fall to the upper 20s to lower 30s by early Sunday:


With strong directional wind shear, I don’t expect a significant lake effect snow event. But, the mountaintops will be plastered white over the weekend and many other places could get a frosting of snow by Sunday morning. Read More…


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