Winter has PLENTY left in the tank: Looking beyond the Thaw, Update 1/10/13

After last winter, more than a few people are panicked about the January Thaw. As I have pounded over and over, this is NOT last winter!

Cooler air is expected to seep into the North Country on Monday. The models have been on again, off again with the possibility of a modest snow event on Tuesday the 15th. But I want to look beyond that to demonstrate that winter isn’t done by a longshot!

Exhibit 1:

ECMWF (The “Euro”) is showing a bitter cold shot of air by next weekend. This panel is showing a strong Arctic High moving across southern Quebec Saturday the 19th. That’s hard core winter cold!

Winter cold

Exhibit 2:

Taking a look at the hemispheric picture, the “Euro” is showing an awesome pattern starting to take shape for the second half of January:

Upper air chart

There is a lot of great stuff in this picture:

1. Massive Polar Vortex (PV) over south/central Canada

2. Strong Canadian Vortex (X) near Newfoundland

3. Huge Greenland Block (Negative North Atlantic Oscillation)

4. Western United States Ridge (Positive Pacific North American Oscillation)

That, my friends, is a textbook set-up for a cold and stormy pattern for the eastern United States. I know the January Thaw is tough to swallow, but they happen often enough to have a name. If the pattern is right, the Thaw becomes a mere speed bump instead of the silver bullet that kills winter.

Take a look at what I wrote a month ago. The growth of the Eurasian snow cover in October usually means good snow here. We’ve already picked up our major snow storm shortly after Christmas and we could be in for another big bomber.

Keep up the faith! We’re ahead of last winter and there is more to come.

Comments welcomed!


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