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Changes to end October 2017

October has been mild and dry. Not much is expected to change the next several days with warm temperature anomalies expected to stretch across much of Canada and the lower 48 states for the next week:

By the middle of next week, the game starts to change as a strong storm begins to develop over the eastern United States, probably due to relaxing of the abnormally strong EPO+ pattern that has held over Alaska for the past several weeks:

You can even see blocking high pressure over Greenland and offshore from Nova Scotia. At the very least, this set-up would bring a needed soaking rain to our area. The truly interesting aspect for us would be the continental Polar air mass draining into the storm system that may result in a changeover to snow later October 25th into the 26th.

For an event that is about a week away, it’s way too early to talk about specific snow accumulation forecasts. But this may be the first meaningful snow opportunity for the Adirondacks (outside the High Peaks) that we’ve had for the young 2017-18 season.

Looking Ahead into November

Thankfully, it appears as though the Alaskan Assassin Polar Vortex should completely break down in November and a new Polar Vortex would assume a more typical position near Ellesmere Island by mid-month:

The strong Pacific Jet would still be present, but suppressed further south. The would allow more numerous shots of continental Polar air (cP) and opportunities for snow as November presses on.

That being said, I don’t envision November 2017 as an especially cold month with the continuing dearth of truly cold air over the northern hemisphere as per the CFSv2 monthly outlook:

But hey…when you’re knocked flat on your back, you need to get up and crawl before you can walk. Then you can think about running. We’ve started in a really bad spot in October. If November actually ends up being a step in the right direction, we can have some hope for another step in the right direction for December.

Siberian Snow?

It appears as through snow is spreading southward fairly rapidly out of Siberia, but slower to spread westward into Eurasia. Overall, it looks pretty close to par for October:

A big deal has been made out of October Siberian snow cover spread in recent years as a ground-breaking indicator as to what the winter may be:

Rapid Siberian snow cover spread = Cold/snowy winters in eastern United States.

But honestly, the past two winters have shaken my confidence in October Siberian snow cover spread as a powerful singular indicator.

Take a look:

Both 2015 & 2016 were two of the better Octobers in the past 35 years in regards to Siberian snow cover spread.

Well, we know that 2015-16 was a completely lost winter. 2016-17 was snowy, but was still mild overall.

It just goes to show there is no singular overlying indicator of how a winter may turn out. While it’s true that a robust spread of snow across Eurasia in October seems to favor a cold/snowy winter here, it’s not a guarantee by any means.

Keeping up with my updates this winter

Unfortunately, with my internet so slow, it takes hours for me to load a simple 5 minute video to Youtube. So, I will be discontinuing the weather videos until I get a breakthrough with the internet, which may actually happen before the end of 2018.

I will tend to post about long range weather patterns on the main website. For more time-sensitive storm updates and random things that pop up in my head at 3am, I’ll post on the Facebook page which is found here: www.facebook.com/ilsnowcom

Make sure that you:

  • Click the Like Button (if you haven’t already)
  • Under Following, set to “See First” in your news feed & set notifications “On”

This will give you a fighting chance of being notified of my updates on Facebook.

For the ilsnow nation,

Darrin

This report is brought to you by Steet Ponte Auto Group. Many of the vehicles here in Indian Lake are bought from the Steet Ponte. Co-owner Joe Steet is a huge fan and booster of ilsnow.com. If you’re looking for a new truck, give Steet Ponte a good look.

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