Beware of False Starts!

You’ll hear about pattern changes and rumors of pattern changes over the upcoming weeks! Don’t fall for the hype of an early winter just because you’re desperate.

The weather will become more active to end October. But that doesn’t mean we’ll have cold and snow here to stay. We’ve still got a lot of ground to cover before we can push into winter!

I’m here to sort out substance from the hype.

Thursday into early Friday

As long advertised, a shift to colder weather is starting this week. A minor coastal storm will push some light rains into ilsnow land on Thursday. Temperatures won’t be cold enough for snow where most people live and play, but the high mountain peaks near and above 4000 foot elevation may get some wet snow Thursday afternoon into the night as continental Polar (cP) air gets entrained into the system:

There is no need to fall in love with the cold, because afternoon high temperatures are likely to rebound into the 60s for ilsnow land on Saturday.

What’s Next?

In response to another steep trough crashing toward the eastern United States, a developing strong coastal may bring widespread heavy rain on Sunday:

The wake of that storm could become very windy and drive home a more significant shot of continental Polar (cP) air mass from Canada:

This could set up a lake-effect precipitation event east-northeast of Lake Ontario into the northwestern Adirondacks early next week into Halloween. Boundary layer temperatures would be marginally cold enough for snow. So a few degrees either way would mean the difference between a significant early season lake-effect snow event and a nasty, chilly wind blown rain.

But, again…

Don’t fall in love with the cold, as the next storm is likely to pass through the Upper Great Lakes with another surge of milder air later next week:

Looking ahead

I wouldn’t expect November 2017 to be exceedingly cold with the northern Hemisphere remaining warm-ish. But the CFSv2 model is starting to latch onto some colder air pooling in the Canadian Arctic with colder temperatures anomalies extending into south-central Canada:

At least we should have some opportunities for cold and snow and FINALLY have weather more typical for this time of year.

Keep Updated!

I will tend to post about long range weather patterns on the main website. For more time-sensitive storm updates and random things that pop up in my head at 3am, I’ll post on the Facebook page which is found here:

Make sure that you:

  • Click the Like Button (if you haven’t already)
  • Under Following, set to “See First” in your news feed & set notifications “On”

This will give you a fighting chance of being notified of my updates on Facebook.

For the ilsnow nation,


This report is brought to you by Progressive Motorsports, celebrating their 25th year. They live, eat and breathe snowmobiling. Stop in today and see for yourself! Be sure to tell Karen that Darrin @ sent ya.

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