Don’t fall in love with it!

Whenever I borrow something from my father, he always tells me: “Don’t fall in love with it!”

That is Dad’s way of telling me to return the borrowed item promptly when I’m done using it.

In a similar way, any cold weather we expect to get through at least mid-November and probably a while beyond should be considered borrowed goods.

Coming up…

The Alaskan Assassin Polar Vortex has been replaced with the East Pacific Oscillation negative phase (EPO-) for early November:

This allows for the pooling of cold air across Canada. But with the Pacific North American Oscillation in its negative phase (PNA-) much of the colder air in the lower 48 States will be relegated to the western quarter of the country and into the northern Plains:

What does this mean for us?

This kind of pattern usually means alternating shots of warm and cold, with temperatures averaging a shade above normal for the next 1-2 weeks. Significant storms generated over the western part of the country would generally take a track through the Great Lakes with their usual surges of milder air followed by cold fronts.

However, weaker weather systems could undercut the northeastern United States to give us a chilly rain or even some wet snow.

This is not a great signature for early season significant snows or bottomless cold in ilsnow land, but it’s good to FINALLY see widespread cold temperature anomalies in Canada. It’s been a long time coming. 

Looking ahead?

CFSv2 ensembles are hinting at a similar configuration through mid-November:

Not the best, but not the kiss of death either…

Keep Updated!

I will tend to post about long range weather patterns on the main website. For more time-sensitive storm updates and random things that pop up in my head at 3am, I’ll post on the Facebook page which is found here:

Make sure that you:

  • Click the Like Button (if you haven’t already)
  • Under Following, set to “See First” in your news feed & set notifications “On”

This will give you a fighting chance of being notified of my updates on Facebook.

For the ilsnow nation,


This report is brought to you by Pilot Knob Marina in Lake George. Just get off Northway I-87 Exit 20, then follow NY Route 149 East until you hit the junction of NY Route 149 and Bay Road. Pilot Knob Marina features a wide selection of new and pre-owned Arctic Cat snowmobiles & ATVs. If you see Nick Barber, tell him that Darrin @ sent ya!


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