White lightning by Thanksgiving?

After record warmth for October 2017, the deck is getting reshuffled in November. After getting the first wintry blast of the season under our belt, we can look forward to more action during the week leading up to Thanksgiving Day.

Our present arctic air mass will moderate over the next several days before the next cold shot rolls into town around November 16th. It won’t be anywhere as potent as what hit us for November 10th, but it’s something:

A more substantial cold shot should become firmly entrenched by Sunday, November 19th, with a nice jet stream trajectory from Alaska & northwest Canada digging a deep trough into the eastern United States:

During the transition, we’ll need to keep our eyes open for a rain-changing-to-snow event around November 17th or 18th. It’s foolish to speculate on snow amounts this far in advance, but this seems to be an opportunity for meaningful snow for ilsnow land.

Looking further ahead

GFS Ensembles are latching onto an interesting pattern in the days leading up to Thanksgiving:

Normally, having a Polar Vortex near Alaska is bad news for those who love cold and snow in the eastern United States. But the presence of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO-) blocking manifested over Greenland changes the game by shortening the trough-ridge-trough wavelength and forcing the jet stream to buckle. This carves yet another deep trough over the eastern United States with perhaps another opportunity for meaningful snow.

You can see the nice trajectory of cold air into the north-central and eastern United States here:

Keep in mind the GFS ensembles average many different model runs. If the ensembles are correct in the development of this pattern, the cold could be much more impressive than what the ensembles imply, especially with the healthy early season snow pack in Canada:

Low down

I’m actually excited about this! We could get a couple of good snow events in the week leading up to Thanksgiving, or not much to show for it. Having the models show a monster snowstorm a week and a half from now doesn’t mean it will actually happen. But a colder and energetic weather pattern appears likely for us.

Keep Updated!

I will tend to post about long range weather patterns on the main website. For more time-sensitive storm updates and random things that pop up in my head at 3am, I’ll post on the Facebook page which is found here: www.facebook.com/ilsnowcom

Make sure that you:

  • Click the Like Button (if you haven’t already)
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This will give you a fighting chance of being notified of my updates on Facebook.

For the ilsnow nation,

Darrin

This report is brought to you by Adirondacks Speculator Region Chamber of Commerce. Speculator has long been one of my favorite places to ride! There are lots of options, whether you want to ride around Speculator for the day, or launch a 250 mile mega-miler. Speculator is loaded with businesses eager to cater to snowmobilers. Look them up at the Speculator Chamber and grab a copy of their snowmobile trail map. Be sure to tell them that Darrin @ ilsnow.com sent you.

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